DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1564-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84891632145
论文题名: Future change of global monsoon in the CMIP5
作者: Lee J.-Y. ; Wang B.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 101
结束页码: 119
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5
; Future change
; Global monsoon precipitation
; Global warming
; Hadley circulation
; Walker circulation
英文摘要: This study investigates future changes of Global Monsoon (GM) under anthropogenic global warming using 20 coupled models that participated in the phase five of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) by comparing two runs: the historical run for 1850-2005 and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 run for 2006-2100. A metrics for evaluation of models' performance on GM is designed to document performance for 1980-2005 and best four models are selected. The four best models' multi-model ensemble (B4MME) projects the following changes in the twenty-first century under the RCP4.5 scenario. (1) Monsoon domain will not change appreciably but land monsoon domain over Asia tends to expand westward by 10.6 %. (2) The annual mean and range of GM precipitation and the percentage of local summer rainfall will all amplify at a significant level over most of the global region, both over land and over ocean. (3) There will be a more prominent northern-southern hemispheric asymmetry and eastern-western hemispheric asymmetry. (4) Northern Hemisphere (NH) monsoon onset will be advanced and withdrawal will be delayed. (5) Changes in monsoon precipitation exhibits huge differences between the NH and the Southern hemisphere (SH). The NH monsoon precipitation will increase significantly due to increase in temperature difference between the NH and SH, significant enhancement of the Hadley circulation, and atmospheric moistening, against stabilization of troposphere. There is a slight decrease of the Walker circulation but not significant against the inter-model spread. There are important differences between the CMIP 3 and CMIP5 results which are discussed in detail. © 2012 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54586
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology and International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii/IPRC, POST Bldg, 1680 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI, 96822, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lee J.-Y.,Wang B.. Future change of global monsoon in the CMIP5[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-01-02)