DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2104-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84895774760
论文题名: Six centuries of May–July precipitation in Cyprus from tree rings
作者: Touchan R. ; Christou A.K. ; Meko D.M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 43, 期: 12 起始页码: 3281
结束页码: 3292
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Drought
; Geopotential height
; Mediterranean region
; Nested reconstruction
; Tree rings
英文摘要: A May–July precipitation nested reconstruction for the period AD 1415–2010 was developed from multi-century tree-ring records of Pinus nigra, Pinus brutia, and Cedrus brevifolia for Cyprus. Calibration and verification statistics for the period 1917–2010 show a good level of skill, and split-sample validation over 1917–2010 supports temporal stability of the tree-ring signal for precipitation. Smoothed annual time series of reconstructed precipitation and a tally of drought events in a moving time window indicate that the calibration period is not representative of the full range of drought variability. While convective precipitation in the warm season may be driven strongly by local factors, composite maps of geopotential height anomaly for dry years and wet years support large-scale atmospheric-flow influence related to height anomalies over the broader region of northeast Africa and the eastern Mediterranean. Emerging positive trend in reconstruction residuals may be an early sign of exacerbation of drought stress on trees by recent warming in May–July. Future warming expected from increases in greenhouse gases poses a threat to forest resources in Cyprus and elsewhere in the Mediterranean. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54587
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, The University of Arizona, 1215 E. Lowell St. Bldg. No. 45B, Tucson, AZ, United States; Department of Forests, Nicosia, Cyprus
Recommended Citation:
Touchan R.,Christou A.K.,Meko D.M.. Six centuries of May–July precipitation in Cyprus from tree rings[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,43(12)