DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1992-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84906941832
论文题名: Revisiting meridional overturing bistability using a minimal set of state variables: Stochastic theory
作者: Sijp W.P. ; Zika J.D. ; d'Orgeville M. ; England M.H.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 43, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1661
结束页码: 1676
语种: 英语
英文关键词: AMOC
; Bistability
; Climate change
; Critical points
; Non-linear system
; Stochastic theory
英文摘要: A stochastic analytical model of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is presented and tested against climate model data. AMOC stability is characterised by an underlying deterministic differential equation describing the evolution of the central state variable of the system, the average Atlantic salinity. Stability of an equilibrium implies that infinitesimal salinity perturbations are damped, and violation of this requirement yields a range of unoccupied salinity states. The range of states is accurately predicted by the analytical model for a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity. The introduction of climatic noise yields an equation describing the evolution of the probability density function of the state variable, and therefore the AMOC. Given the hysteresis behaviour of the steady AMOC versus surface freshwater forcing, the statistical model is able to describe the variability of the AMOC based on knowledge of the variability in the forcing. The method accurately describes the wandering between AMOC-On and AMOC-Off states in the climate model. The framework presented is a first step in relating the stability of the AMOC to more observable aspects of its behaviour, such as its transient response to variable forcing. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: ARC, Australian Research Council
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54590
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia; National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Sijp W.P.,Zika J.D.,d'Orgeville M.,et al. Revisiting meridional overturing bistability using a minimal set of state variables: Stochastic theory[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,43(2017-05-06)