DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1963-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84897577306
论文题名: Uncertainties in the regional climate models simulations of South-Asian summer monsoon and climate change
作者: Syed F.S. ; Iqbal W. ; Syed A.A.B. ; Rasul G.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 2079
结束页码: 2097
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Monsoon
; PRECIS
; RegCM4
; Regional climate model
; South-Asia
; Uncertainty
英文摘要: The uncertainties in the regional climate models (RCMs) are evaluated by analyzing the driving global data of ERA40 reanalysis and ECHAM5 general circulation models, and the downscaled data of two RCMs (RegCM4 and PRECIS) over South-Asia for the present day simulation (1971-2000) of South-Asian summer monsoon. The differences between the observational datasets over South-Asia are also analyzed. The spatial and the quantitative analysis over the selected climatic regions of South-Asia for the mean climate and the inter-annual variability of temperature, precipitation and circulation show that the RCMs have systematic biases which are independent from different driving datasets and seems to come from the physics parameterization of the RCMs. The spatial gradients and topographically-induced structure of climate are generally captured and simulated values are within a few degrees of the observed values. The biases in the RCMs are not consistent with the biases in the driving fields and the models show similar spatial patterns after downscaling different global datasets. The annual cycle of temperature and rainfall is well simulated by the RCMs, however the RCMs are not able to capture the inter-annual variability. ECHAM5 is also downscaled for the future (2071-2100) climate under A1B emission scenario. The climate change signal is consistent between ECHAM5 and RCMs. There is warming over all the regions of South-Asia associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and the increase in summer mean surface air temperature by the end of the century ranges from 2.5 to 5 °C, with maximum warming over north western parts of the domain and 30 % increase in rainfall over north eastern India, Bangladesh and Myanmar. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54625
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Centre for Climate Research and Development (CCRD), Department of Meteorology, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan; Research and Development Division, Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan
Recommended Citation:
Syed F.S.,Iqbal W.,Syed A.A.B.,et al. Uncertainties in the regional climate models simulations of South-Asian summer monsoon and climate change[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-07-08)