DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1969-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84896076668
论文题名: Impact of initialization procedures on the predictive skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model
作者: Polkova I. ; Köhl A. ; Stammer D.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期: 2017-11-12 起始页码: 3151
结束页码: 3169
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Anomaly initialization
; Decadal predictions
; Flux correction
; Full state initialization
英文摘要: The sensitivity of the predictive skill of a decadal climate prediction system is investigated with respect to details of the initialization procedure. For this purpose, the coupled ocean-atmosphere UCLA/MITgcm climate model is initialized using the following three different initialization approaches: full state initialization (FSI), anomaly initialization (AI) and FSI employing heat flux and freshwater flux corrections (FC). The ocean initial conditions are provided by the German contribution to Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean state estimate (GECCO project), from which ensembles of decadal hindcasts are initialized every 5 years from 1961 to 2001. The predictive skill for sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is assessed against the GECCO synthesis. In regions with a deep mixed layer the predictive skill for SST anomalies remains significant for up to a decade in the FC experiment. By contrast, FSI shows less persistent skill in the North Atlantic and AI does not show high skill in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere, but appears to be more skillful in the tropics. In the extratropics, the improved skill is related to the ability of the FC initialization method to better represent the mixed layer depth, and the highest skill occurs during wintertime. The correlation skill for the spatially averaged North Atlantic SSH hindcasts remains significant up to a decade only for FC. The North Atlantic MOC initialized hindcasts show high correlation values in the first pentad while correlation remains significant in the following pentad too for FSI and FC. Overall, for the current setup, the FC approach appears to lead to the best results, followed by the FSI and AI procedures. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54629
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany; Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Polkova I.,Köhl A.,Stammer D.. Impact of initialization procedures on the predictive skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-11-12)