DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1773-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84899975021
论文题名: Multi-year prediction skill of Atlantic hurricane activity in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts
作者: Caron L.-P. ; Jones C.G. ; Doblas-Reyes F.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2675
结束页码: 2690
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atlantic variability
; Decadal climate prediction
; Forecast
; Hurricane activity
; Multi-model ensemble
英文摘要: Using a statistical relationship between simulated sea surface temperature and Atlantic hurricane activity, we estimate the skill of a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble at predicting multi-annual level of Atlantic hurricane activity. The series of yearly-initialized hindcasts show positive skill compared to simpler forecasts such as persistence and climatology as well as non-initialized forecasts and return anomaly correlation coefficients of ∼0.6 and ∼0.8 for five and nine year forecasts, respectively. Some skill is shown to remain in the later years and making use of those later years to create a lagged-ensemble yields, for individual models, results that approach that obtained by the multi-model ensemble. Some of the skill is shown to come from persisting rather than predicting the climate shift that occur in 1994-1995. After accounting for that shift, the anomaly correlation coefficient for five-year forecasts is estimated to drop to 0.4, but remains statistically significant up to lead years 3-7. Most of the skill is shown to come from the ability of the forecast systems at capturing change in Atlantic sea surface temperature, although the failure of most systems at reproducing the observed slow down in warming over the tropics in recent years leads to an underestimation of hurricane activity in the later period. © 2013 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54665
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Rossby Centre, Swedish Meterological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden; Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain; Instituciò Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain; Bert Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Caron L.-P.,Jones C.G.,Doblas-Reyes F.. Multi-year prediction skill of Atlantic hurricane activity in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-09-10)