DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1646-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84886728600
论文题名: Evaluating climate change at the Croatian Adriatic from observations and regional climate models' simulations
作者: Branković Č. ; Güttler I. ; Gajić-Čapka M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 41, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2353
结束页码: 2373
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Coastal zone
; ENSEMBLES
; Regional climate model
; Systematic errors
英文摘要: The 2m temperature (T2m) and precipitation from five regional climate models (RCMs), which participated in the ENSEMBLES project and were integrated at a 25-km horizontal resolution, are compared with observed climatological data from 13 stations located in the Croatian coastal zone. The twentieth century climate was simulated by forcing RCMs with identical boundary conditions from the ERA-40 reanalysis and the ECHAM5/MPI-OM global climate model (GCM); climate change in the twenty-first century is based on the A1B scenario and assessed from the GCM-forced RCMs' integrations. When forced by ERA-40, most RCMs exhibit cold bias in winter which contributes to an overestimation of the T2m annual cycle amplitude and the errors in interannual variability are in all RCMs smaller than those in the climatological mean. All models underestimate observed warming trends in the period 1951-2010. The largest precipitation biases coincide with locations/seasons with small observed amounts but large precipitation amounts near high orography are relatively well reproduced. When forced by the same GCM all RCMs exhibit a warming in the cold half-year and a cooling (or weak warming) in the warm period, implying a strong impact of GCM boundary forcing. The future eastern Adriatic climate is characterised by a warming, up to +5 °C towards the end of the twenty-first century; for precipitation, no clear signal is evident in the first half of the twenty-first century, but a reduction in precipitation during summer prevails in the second half. It is argued that land-sea contrast and complex coastal configuration of the Croatian coast, i.e. multitude of island and well indented coastline, have a major impact on small-scale variability. Orography plays important role only at small number of coastal locations. We hypothesise that the parameterisations related to land surface processes and soil hydrology have relatively stronger impact on variability than orography at those locations that include a relatively large fraction of land (most coastal stations), but affecting less strongly locations at the Adriatic islands. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54751
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ), Grič 3, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
Recommended Citation:
Branković Č.,Güttler I.,Gajić-Čapka M.. Evaluating climate change at the Croatian Adriatic from observations and regional climate models' simulations[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,41(2017-09-10)