DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1515-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84884703582
论文题名: Projections of daily mean temperature variability in the future: Cross-validation tests with ENSEMBLES regional climate simulations
作者: Räisänen J. ; Räty O.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 41, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1553
结束页码: 1568
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bias correction
; Climate change
; Climate projection
; Cross validation
; Daily variability
; Delta change
; ENSEMBLES
; Europe
; Temperature
英文摘要: Because of model biases, projections of future climate need to combine model simulations of recent and future climate with information on observed climate. Here, 10 methods for projecting the distribution of daily mean temperatures are compared, using six regional climate change simulations for Europe. Cross validation between the models is used to assess the potential performance of the methods in projecting future climate. Delta change and bias correction type methods show similar cross-validation performance, with methods based on the quantile mapping approach doing best in both groups due to their apparent ability to reduce the errors in the projected time mean temperature change. However, as no single method performs best under all circumstances, the optimal approach might be to use several well-behaving methods in parallel. When applying the various methods to real-world temperature projection for the late 21st century, the largest intermethod differences are found in the tails of the temperature distribution. Although the intermethod variation of the projections is generally smaller than their intermodel variation, it is not negligible. Therefore, it should be preferably included in uncertainty analysis of temperature projections, particularly in applications where the extremes of the distribution are important. © 2012 Springer-Verlag. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54799
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 48 (Erik Palménin aukio 1), 00014 Helsinki, Finland
Recommended Citation:
Räisänen J.,Räty O.. Projections of daily mean temperature variability in the future: Cross-validation tests with ENSEMBLES regional climate simulations[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,41(2017-05-06)