DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1887-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84884699585
论文题名: The seasonal footprinting mechanism in CFSv2: Simulation and impact on ENSO prediction
作者: Pegion K. ; Alexander M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 41, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1671
结束页码: 1683
语种: 英语
英文摘要: The seasonal footprinting mechanism (SFM) is thought to be a pre-cursor to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Fluctuations in the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) impact the ocean via surface heat fluxes during winter, leaving a sea-surface temperature (SST) "footprint" in the subtropics. This footprint persists through the spring, impacting the tropical Pacific atmosphere-ocean circulation throughout the following year. The simulation of the SFM in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2) is likely to have an impact on operational predictions of ENSO and potentially seasonal predictions in the United States associated with ENSO teleconnection patterns. The ability of the CFSv2 to simulate the SFM and the relationship between the SFM and ENSO prediction skill in the NCEP/CFSv2 are investigated. Results indicate that the CFSv2 is able to simulate the basic characteristics of the SFM and its relationship with ENSO, including extratropical sea level pressure anomalies associated with the NPO in the winter, corresponding wind and SST anomalies that impact the tropics, and the development of ENSO-related SST anomalies the following winter. Although the model is able to predict the correct sign of ENSO associated with the SFM in a composite sense, probabilistic predictions of ENSO following a positive or negative NPO event are generally less reliable than when the NPO is not active. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54816
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Physical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 325 Broadway R, PSD1, Boulder, CO, 80305, United States
Recommended Citation:
Pegion K.,Alexander M.. The seasonal footprinting mechanism in CFSv2: Simulation and impact on ENSO prediction[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,41(2017-05-06)