DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1610-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84881027981
论文题名: Climate model dependence and the replicate Earth paradigm
作者: Bishop C.H. ; Abramowitz G.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 41, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 885
结束页码: 900
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate model bias correction
; Climate model ensembles
; Climate uncertainty quantification
; Model independence
英文摘要: Multi-model ensembles are commonly used in climate prediction to create a set of independent estimates, and so better gauge the likelihood of particular outcomes and better quantify prediction uncertainty. Yet researchers share literature, datasets and model code-to what extent do different simulations constitute independent estimates? What is the relationship between model performance and independence? We show that error correlation provides a natural empirical basis for defining model dependence and derive a weighting strategy that accounts for dependence in experiments where the multi-model mean would otherwise be used. We introduce the "replicate Earth" ensemble interpretation framework, based on theoretically derived statistical relationships between ensembles of perfect models (replicate Earths) and observations. We transform an ensemble of (imperfect) climate projections into an ensemble whose mean and variance have the same statistical relationship to observations as an ensemble of replicate Earths. The approach can be used with multi-model ensembles that have varying numbers of simulations from different models, accounting for model dependence. We use HadCRUT3 data and the CMIP3 models to show that in out of sample tests, the transformed ensemble has an ensemble mean with significantly lower error and much flatter rank frequency histograms than the original ensemble. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54819
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, 7 Grace Hopper Avenue, Monterey, CA, 93943-5502, United States; Climate Change Research Centre, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Kensington, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Bishop C.H.,Abramowitz G.. Climate model dependence and the replicate Earth paradigm[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,41(2017-03-04)