DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1588-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84880675299
论文题名: Seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian winter temperature variability
作者: Lee J.-Y. ; Lee S.-S. ; Wang B. ; Ha K.-J. ; Jhun J.-G.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 41, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 573
结束页码: 587
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Asian winter monsoon
; DJF 2 m air temperature variability
; Monsoon-ENSO relationship
; Multi-model ensemble (MME)
; Seasonal climate prediction
; Statistical model
英文摘要: Efforts have been made to appreciate the extent to which we can predict the dominant modes of December-January-February (DJF) 2 m air temperature (TS) variability over the Asian winter monsoon region with dynamical models and a physically based statistical model. Dynamical prediction was made on the basis of multi-model ensemble (MME) of 13 coupled models with the November 1 initial condition for 21 boreal winters of 1981/1982-2001/2002. Statistical prediction was performed for 21 winters of 1981/1982-2001/2002 in a cross-validated way and for 11 winters of 1999/2000-2009/2010 in an independent verification. The first four observed modes of empirical orthogonal function analysis of DJF TS variability explain 69 % of the total variability and are statistically separated from other higher modes. We identify these as predictable modes, because they have clear physical meaning and the MME reproduces them with acceptable criteria. The MME skill basically originates from the models' ability to capture the predictable modes. The MME shows better skill for the first mode, represented by a basin-wide warming trend, and for second mode related to the Arctic Oscillation. However, the statistical model better captures the third and fourth modes, which are strongly related to El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on interannual and interdecadal timescales, respectively. Independent statistical forecasting for the recent 11-year period further reveals that the first and fourth modes are highly predictable. The second and third modes are less predictable due to lower persistence of boundary forcing and reduced potential predictability during the recent years. In particular, the notable decadal change in the monsoon-ENSO relationship makes the statistical forecast difficult. © 2012 The Author(s). 资助项目: National Research Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54821
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, United States; Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea; School of Earth and Environmental Sciences/Research Institute of Oceanography, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Lee J.-Y.,Lee S.-S.,Wang B.,et al. Seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian winter temperature variability[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,41(2017-03-04)