DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1850-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84881027978
论文题名: CFSv2 ensemble prediction of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation
作者: Riddle E.E. ; Butler A.H. ; Furtado J.C. ; Cohen J.L. ; Kumar A.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 41, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 1099
结束页码: 1116
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic Oscillation
; Climate prediction
; Eurasian snow cover
; Modes of climate variability
; Seasonal forecasting
; Stratosphere-troposphere coupling
英文摘要: Lagged ensembles from the operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) seasonal hindcast dataset are used to assess skill in forecasting interannual variability of the December-February Arctic Oscillation (AO). We find that a small but statistically significant portion of the interannual variance (>20 %) of the wintertime AO can be predicted at leads up to 2 months using lagged ensemble averages. As far as we are aware, this is the first study to demonstrate that an operational model has discernible skill in predicting AO variability on seasonal timescales. We find that the CFS forecast skill is slightly higher when a weighted ensemble is used that rewards forecast runs with the most accurate representations of October Eurasian snow cover extent (SCE), hinting that a stratospheric pathway linking October Eurasian SCE with the AO may be responsible for the model skill. However, further analysis reveals that the CFS is unable to capture many important aspects of this stratospheric mechanism. Model deficiencies identified include: (1) the CFS significantly underestimates the observed variance in October Eurasian SCE, (2) the CFS fails to translate surface pressure anomalies associated with SCE anomalies into vertically propagating waves, and (3) stratospheric AO patterns in the CFS fail to propagate downward through the tropopause to the surface. Thus, alternate boundary forcings are likely contributing to model skill. Improving model deficiencies identified in this study may lead to even more skillful predictions of wintertime AO variability in future versions of the CFS. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54846
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, 5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD, 20740, United States; Wyle Science Technology and Engineering Group, 1290 Hercules Ave., Houston, TX, 77058, United States; Atmospheric and Environmental Research, 131 Hartwell Place, Lexington, MA, 02421, United States
Recommended Citation:
Riddle E.E.,Butler A.H.,Furtado J.C.,et al. CFSv2 ensemble prediction of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,41(2017-03-04)