globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1663-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84881027714
论文题名:
Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system
作者: Pohlmann H.; Smith D.M.; Balmaseda M.A.; Keenlyside N.S.; Masina S.; Matei D.; Müller W.A.; Rogel P.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 41, 期:2017-03-04
起始页码: 775
结束页码: 785
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atlantic MOC ; Decadal prediction ; Multi-model comparison ; Predictability
英文摘要: Assessing the skill of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in decadal hindcasts (i.e. retrospective predictions) is hampered by a lack of observations for verification. Models are therefore needed to reconstruct the historical AMOC variability. Here we show that ten recent oceanic syntheses provide a common signal of AMOC variability at 45°N, with an increase from the 1960s to the mid-1990s and a decrease thereafter although they disagree on the exact magnitude. This signal correlates with observed key processes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, sub-polar gyre strength, Atlantic sea surface temperature dipole, and Labrador Sea convection that are thought to be related to the AMOC. Furthermore, we find potential predictability of the mid-latitude AMOC for the first 3-6 year means when we validate decadal hindcasts for the past 50 years against the multi-model signal. However, this predictability is not found in models driven only by external radiative changes, demonstrating the need for initialization of decadal climate predictions. © 2013 Crown Copyright.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54848
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, United Kingdom; Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Centre, University of Bergen, Postboks 7800, NO-5020 Bergen, Norway; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Viale Aldo Moro 44, 40127 Bologna, Italy; Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany; CERFACS/URA1875/CNRS, 42 Avenue Gustave Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse, CEDEX 1, France

Recommended Citation:
Pohlmann H.,Smith D.M.,Balmaseda M.A.,et al. Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,41(2017-03-04)
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