DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1422-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84879555474
论文题名: An assessment of Canadian prairie drought: Past, present, and future
作者: Bonsal B.R. ; Aider R. ; Gachon P. ; Lapp S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 41, 期: 2 起始页码: 501
结束页码: 516
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmosphere-Ocean Global climate models
; Canadian Prairies
; Climate change
; Downscaling
; Droughts
; Paleo-climate
英文摘要: Within Canada, the Canadian Prairies are particularly drought-prone mainly due to their location in the lee of the western cordillera and distance from large moisture sources. Although previous studies examined the occurrence of Canadian Prairie droughts during instrumental, pre-instrumental and to a lesser extent, future periods, none have specifically focused on all time three scales. Using two different drought indicators, namely the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), this investigation assesses the variability of summer drought duration and intensity over a core region of the Prairies during (a) the pre-instrumental record extending back several centuries (inferred from tree rings), (b) the instrumental record (1901-2005), and (c) the twenty-first century using statistically downscaled climate variables from several Atmosphere-Ocean Global climate models with multiple emission scenarios. Results reveal that observed twentieth century droughts were relatively mild when compared to pre-settlement on the Prairies, but these periods are likely to return (and even worsen) in the future due to the anticipated warming during the course of the twenty-first century. However, future drought projections are distinctly different between the two indices. All PDSI-related model runs show greater drought frequency and severity mainly due to increasing temperatures. Conversely, the precipitation-based SPI indicates no significant changes to future summer drought frequency although there tends to be a higher persistence of multi-year droughts in central and southern portions of Canadian Prairies. These findings therefore stress the importance of considering anticipated warming trends when assessing future regional-scale drought, especially given the uncertainties and lack of consistency in future precipitation signals among climate models. This study can be considered an initial step toward quantifying and understanding Canadian Prairie drought occurrence and severity over several centuries as determined from paleo, instrumental, and climate model data sources. © 2012 Her Majesty the Queen in the Right of Canada as represented by the Minister of the Environment. 资助项目: Environment Canada
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54882
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Environment Canada, 11 Innovation Boulevard, Saskatoon, SK, S7N 3H5, Canada; Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Section, Montreal, QC, Canada; ESCER (Étude et Simulation du Climat à l'Échelle Régionale) Centre, University of Québec at Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada; Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Bonsal B.R.,Aider R.,Gachon P.,et al. An assessment of Canadian prairie drought: Past, present, and future[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,41(2)