DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1635-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84878107003
论文题名: Projected changes in tropical cyclone climatology and landfall in the Southwest Indian Ocean region under enhanced anthropogenic forcing
作者: Malherbe J. ; Engelbrecht F.A. ; Landman W.A.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 2017-11-12 起始页码: 2867
结束页码: 2886
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric model
; Climate change
; Indian Ocean
; Landfall
; Southern Africa
; Tropical cyclone
英文摘要: The conformal-cubic atmospheric model, a variable-resolution global model, is applied at high spatial resolution to perform simulations of present-day and future climate over southern Africa and over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The model is forced with the bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice of six coupled global climate models that contributed to Assessment Report 4 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. All six simulations are for the period 1961-2100, under the A2 emission scenario. Projections for the latter part of the 21st century indicate a decrease in the occurrence of tropical cyclones over the Southwest Indian Ocean adjacent to southern Africa, as well as a northward shift in the preferred landfall position of these systems over the southern African subcontinent. A concurrent increase in January to March rainfall is projected for northern Mozambique and southern Tanzania, with decreases projected further south over semi-arid areas such as the Limpopo River Basin where these systems make an important contribution as main cause of widespread heavy rainfall. It is shown that the projected changes in tropical cyclone attributes and regional rainfall occur in relation to changes in larger scale atmospheric temperature, pressure and wind profiles of the southern African region and adjacent oceans. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54884
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Agricultural Research Council, Pretoria, South Africa; Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa; CSIR Natural Resources and the Environment: Climate Studies, Modelling and Environmental Health, Pretoria, South Africa
Recommended Citation:
Malherbe J.,Engelbrecht F.A.,Landman W.A.. Projected changes in tropical cyclone climatology and landfall in the Southwest Indian Ocean region under enhanced anthropogenic forcing[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,40(2017-11-12)