DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1450-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84878107933
论文题名: Trends and low frequency variability of extra-tropical cyclone activity in the ensemble of twentieth century reanalysis
作者: Wang X.L. ; Feng Y. ; Compo G.P. ; Swail V.R. ; Zwiers F.W. ; Allan R.J. ; Sardeshmukh P.D.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 2017-11-12 起始页码: 2775
结束页码: 2800
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Cyclone tracking
; Data homogeneity tests
; Data homogenization
; Extra-tropical cyclones
; Reanalysis data
; Trends and low frequency variability
英文摘要: An objective cyclone tracking algorithm is applied to twentieth century reanalysis (20CR) 6-hourly mean sea level pressure fields for the period 1871-2010 to infer historical trends and variability in extra-tropical cyclone activity. The tracking algorithm is applied both to the ensemble-mean analyses and to each of the 56 ensemble members individually. The ensemble-mean analyses are found to be unsuitable for accurately determining cyclone statistics. However, pooled cyclone statistics obtained by averaging statistics from individual members generally agree well with statistics from the NCEP-NCAR reanalyses for 1951-2010, although 20CR shows somewhat weaker cyclone activity over land and stronger activity over oceans. Both reanalyses show similar cyclone trend patterns in the northern hemisphere (NH) over 1951-2010. Homogenized pooled cyclone statistics are analyzed for trends and variability. Conclusions account for identified inhomogeneities, which occurred before 1949 in the NH and between 1951 and 1985 in the southern hemisphere (SH). Cyclone activity is estimated to have increased slightly over the period 1871-2010 in the NH. More substantial increases are seen in the SH. Notable regional and seasonal variations in trends are evident, as is profound decadal or longer scale variability. For example, the NH increases occur mainly in the mid-latitude Pacific and high-latitude Atlantic regions. For the North Atlantic-European region and southeast Australia, the 20CR cyclone trends are in agreement with trends in geostrophic wind extremes derived from in-situ surface pressure observations. European trends are also consistent with trends in the mean duration of wet spells derived from rain gauge data in Europe. © 2012 Her Majesty the Queen in the Right of Canada as represented by the Minister of the Environment. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54888
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Climate Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, ON, M3H 5T4, Canada; CIRES, Climate Diagnostics Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Physical Sciences Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, VIC, Canada; Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Wang X.L.,Feng Y.,Compo G.P.,et al. Trends and low frequency variability of extra-tropical cyclone activity in the ensemble of twentieth century reanalysis[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,40(2017-11-12)