| DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-012-1471-4
|
| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84878107636
|
| 论文题名: | Linear response functions to project contributions to future sea level |
| 作者: | Winkelmann R.; Levermann A.
|
| 刊名: | Climate Dynamics
|
| ISSN: | 9307575
|
| 出版年: | 2013
|
| 卷: | 40, 期:2017-11-12 | | 起始页码: | 2579
|
| 结束页码: | 2588
|
| 语种: | 英语
|
| 英文关键词: | Antarctica
; Greenland
; Response functions
; Sea-level rise
; Thermal expansion
|
| 英文摘要: | We propose linear response functions to separately estimate the sea-level contributions of thermal expansion and solid ice discharge from Greenland and Antarctica. The response function formalism introduces a time-dependence which allows for future rates of sea-level rise to be influenced by past climate variations. We find that this time-dependence is of the same functional type, R(t) ∼ t α, for each of the three subsystems considered here. The validity of the approach is assessed by comparing the sea-level estimates obtained via the response functions to projections from comprehensive models. The pure vertical diffusion case in one dimension, corresponding to α=-0.5, is a valid approximation for thermal expansion within the ocean up to the middle of the twenty first century for all Representative Concentration Pathways. The approximation is significantly improved for α = - 0.7. For the solid ice discharge from Greenland we find an optimal value of α = -0.7. Different from earlier studies we conclude that solid ice discharge from Greenland due to dynamic thinning is bounded by 0.42 m sea-level equivalent. Ice discharge induced by surface warming on Antarctica is best captured by a positive value of α = 0.1 which reflects the fact that ice loss increases with the cumulative amount of heat available for softening the ice in our model. © 2012 Springer-Verlag. |
| Citation statistics: |
|
| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
|
| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54907
|
| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
|
|
There are no files associated with this item.
|
|
作者单位: | Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
|
| Recommended Citation: | |
Winkelmann R.,Levermann A.. Linear response functions to project contributions to future sea level[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,40(2017-11-12)
|
|
|