globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1612-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84874945993
论文题名:
The effects of aggressive mitigation on steric sea level rise and sea ice changes
作者: Körper J.; Höschel I.; Lowe J.A.; Hewitt C.D.; Salas y Melia D.; Roeckner E.; Huebener H.; Royer J.-F.; Dufresne J.-L.; Pardaens A.; Giorgetta M.A.; Sanderson M.G.; Otterå O.H.; Tjiputra J.; Denvil S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期:2017-03-04
起始页码: 531
结束页码: 550
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate ; CMIP5 ; ENSEMBLES ; Mitigation ; Multi-model ; Projections ; Sea ice ; Sea level rise ; Stabilization
英文摘要: With an increasing political focus on limiting global warming to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels it is vital to understand the consequences of these targets on key parts of the climate system. Here, we focus on changes in sea level and sea ice, comparing twenty-first century projections with increased greenhouse gas concentrations (using the mid-range IPCC A1B emissions scenario) with those under a mitigation scenario with large reductions in emissions (the E1 scenario). At the end of the twenty-first century, the global mean steric sea level rise is reduced by about a third in the mitigation scenario compared with the A1B scenario. Changes in surface air temperature are found to be poorly correlated with steric sea level changes. While the projected decreases in sea ice extent during the first half of the twenty-first century are independent of the season or scenario, especially in the Arctic, the seasonal cycle of sea ice extent is amplified. By the end of the century the Arctic becomes sea ice free in September in the A1B scenario in most models. In the mitigation scenario the ice does not disappear in the majority of models, but is reduced by 42 % of the present September extent. Results for Antarctic sea ice changes reveal large initial biases in the models and a significant correlation between projected changes and the initial extent. This latter result highlights the necessity for further refinements in Antarctic sea ice modelling for more reliable projections of future sea ice. © 2012 The Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54945
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10, 12165 Berlin, Germany; Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; Centre National de Recherches Méteorologiques-Groupe d'Etude de l'Atmosphere Meteorologique, 42 Avenue G. Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse, France; Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany; Hessian Agency for Environment and Geology, Rheingaustraße 186, 65203 Wiesbaden, Germany; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique-Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (LMD/IPSL), CNRS/UPMC, 4 place Jussieu, 75252 Paris Cedex 05, France; Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Thormøhlensgt. 47, 5006 Bergen, Norway; Uni Bjerknes Centre, Uni Research, Allegt. 55, 5007 Bergen, Norway; Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Allegaten 70, 5007 Bergen, Norway; Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), CNRS/UPMC, 4 place Jussieu, 75252 Paris Cedex 05, France

Recommended Citation:
Körper J.,Höschel I.,Lowe J.A.,et al. The effects of aggressive mitigation on steric sea level rise and sea ice changes[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,40(2017-03-04)
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