DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1410-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84874946832
论文题名: Abrupt CO2 experiments as tools for predicting and understanding CMIP5 representative concentration pathway projections
作者: Good P. ; Gregory J.M. ; Lowe J.A. ; Andrews T.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 1041
结束页码: 1053
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Global climate change
; Projections
; Sea-level
; Simple models
英文摘要: A fast simple climate modelling approach is developed for predicting and helping to understand general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We show that the simple model reproduces the GCM results accurately, for global mean surface air temperature change and global-mean heat uptake projections from 9 GCMs in the fifth coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP5). This implies that understanding gained from idealised CO2 step experiments is applicable to policy-relevant scenario projections. Our approach is conceptually simple. It works by using the climate response to a CO2 step change taken directly from a GCM experiment. With radiative forcing from non-CO2 constituents obtained by adapting the Forster and Taylor method, we use our method to estimate results for CMIP5 representative concentration pathway (RCP) experiments for cases not run by the GCMs. We estimate differences between pairs of RCPs rather than RCP anomalies relative to the pre-industrial state. This gives better results because it makes greater use of available GCM projections. The GCMs exhibit differences in radiative forcing, which we incorporate in the simple model. We analyse the thus-completed ensemble of RCP projections. The ensemble mean changes between 1986-2005 and 2080-2099 for global temperature (heat uptake) are, for RCP8. 5: 3. 8 K (2. 3 × 1024 J); for RCP6. 0: 2. 3 K (1. 6 × 1024 J); for RCP4. 5: 2. 0 K (1. 6 × 1024 J); for RCP2. 6: 1. 1 K (1. 3 × 1024 J). The relative spread (standard deviation/ensemble mean) for these scenarios is around 0. 2 and 0. 15 for temperature and heat uptake respectively. We quantify the relative effect of mitigation action, through reduced emissions, via the time-dependent ratios (change in RCPx)/(change in RCP8. 5), using changes with respect to pre-industrial conditions. We find that the effects of mitigation on global-mean temperature change and heat uptake are very similar across these different GCMs. © 2012 Crown Copyright. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54951
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Good P.,Gregory J.M.,Lowe J.A.,et al. Abrupt CO2 experiments as tools for predicting and understanding CMIP5 representative concentration pathway projections[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,40(2017-03-04)