DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1585-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84874293407
论文题名: A probabilistic quantification of the anthropogenic component of twentieth century global warming
作者: Wigley T.M.L. ; Santer B.D.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1087
结束页码: 1102
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Aerosol forcing
; Climate
; Global warming
; Human influences
; NADW
; Probabilistic calculations
; Solar forcing
英文摘要: This paper examines in detail the statement in the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report that "Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations". We use a quantitative probabilistic analysis to evaluate this IPCC statement, and discuss the value of the statement in the policy context. For forcing by greenhouse gases (GHGs) only, we show that there is a greater than 90 % probability that the expected warming over 1950-2005 is larger than the total amount (not just "most") of the observed warming. This is because, following current best estimates, negative aerosol forcing has substantially offset the GHG-induced warming. We also consider the expected warming from all anthropogenic forcings using the same probabilistic framework. This requires a re-assessment of the range of possible values for aerosol forcing. We provide evidence that the IPCC estimate for the upper bound of indirect aerosol forcing is almost certainly too high. Our results show that the expected warming due to all human influences since 1950 (including aerosol effects) is very similar to the observed warming. Including the effects of natural external forcing factors has a relatively small impact on our 1950-2005 results, but improves the correspondence between model and observations over 1900-2005. Over the longer period, however, externally forced changes are insufficient to explain the early twentieth century warming. We suggest that changes in the formation rate of North Atlantic Deep Water may have been a significant contributing factor. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54961
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, 80307, United States; University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, 5005, Australia; Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, 94550, United States
Recommended Citation:
Wigley T.M.L.,Santer B.D.. A probabilistic quantification of the anthropogenic component of twentieth century global warming[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,40(2017-05-06)