DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1436-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84876859830
论文题名: Towards a better understanding of changes in wintertime cold extremes over Europe: A pilot study with CNRM and IPSL atmospheric models
作者: Cattiaux J. ; Douville H. ; Ribes A. ; Chauvin F. ; Plante C.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2433
结束页码: 2445
语种: 英语
英文关键词: European temperatures
; Global climate model
; Intra-seasonal variability
; Temperature extremes
; Weather regimes
英文摘要: Recent winter seasons have evidenced that global warming does not exclude the occurrence of exceptionally cold and/or snowy episodes in the Northern mid-latitudes. The expected rarefaction of such events is likely to exacerbate both their societal and environmental impacts. This paper therefore aims to evaluate model uncertainties underlying the fate of wintertime cold extremes over Europe. Understanding why climate models (1) still show deficiencies in simulating present-day features and (2) differ in their responses under future scenarios for the twentyfirst century indeed constitutes a crucial challenge. Here we propose a weather-regime approach in order to separate the contributions of large-scale circulation and non-dynamical processes to biases or changes in the simulated mean and extreme temperatures. We illustrate our methodology from the wintertime occurrence of extremely cold days in idealized atmosphere-only experiments performed with two of the CMIP5 climate models (CNRM-CM5 and IPSL-CM5A-LR). First we find that most of the present-day temperature biases are due to systematic errors in non-dynamical processes, while the main features of the large-scale dynamics are well captured in such experiments driven by observed sea-surface temperatures, with the exception of a generalized underestimation of blocking episodes. Then we show that uncertainties associated with changes in large-scale circulation modulate the depletion in cold extremes under an idealized scenario for the late twentyfirst century. These preliminary results suggest that the original methodology proposed in this paper can be helpful for understanding spreads of larger model-ensembles when simulating the response of temperature extremes to climate change. © 2012 Springer-Verlag. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54984
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Météo-France/CNRM-GAME, 42 avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse, France
Recommended Citation:
Cattiaux J.,Douville H.,Ribes A.,et al. Towards a better understanding of changes in wintertime cold extremes over Europe: A pilot study with CNRM and IPSL atmospheric models[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,40(2017-09-10)