DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1393-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84871920412
论文题名: Very extreme seasonal precipitation in the NARCCAP ensemble: Model performance and projections
作者: Wehner M.F.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 59
结束页码: 80
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate models
; Extreme precipitation
; High resolution
; Return value
; Uncertainty
英文摘要: Seasonal extreme daily precipitation is analyzed in the ensemble of NARCAPP regional climate models. Significant variation in these models' abilities to reproduce observed precipitation extremes over the contiguous United States is found. Model performance metrics are introduced to characterize overall biases, seasonality, spatial extent and the shape of the precipitation distribution. Comparison of the models to gridded observations that include an elevation correction is found to be better than to gridded observations without this correction. A complicated model weighting scheme based on model performance in simulating observations is found to cause significant improvements in ensemble mean skill only if some of the models are poorly performing outliers. The effect of lateral boundary conditions are explored by comparing the integrations driven by reanalysis to those driven by global climate models. Projected mid-century future changes in seasonal precipitation means and extremes are presented and discussions of the sources of uncertainty and the mechanisms causing these changes are presented. © 2012 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55006
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Rd. MS50F, Berkeley, CA, 94720, United States
Recommended Citation:
Wehner M.F.. Very extreme seasonal precipitation in the NARCCAP ensemble: Model performance and projections[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,40(2017-01-02)