DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1317-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84871925659
论文题名: Will the South Asian monsoon overturning circulation stabilize any further?
作者: Krishnan R. ; Sabin T.P. ; Ayantika D.C. ; Kitoh A. ; Sugi M. ; Murakami H. ; Turner A.G. ; Slingo J.M. ; Rajendran K.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 187
结束页码: 211
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Global climate change
; Orographic precipitation response
; South Asian monsoon
; Stability of monsoon circulation
; Western Ghats
英文摘要: Understanding the response of the South Asian monsoon (SAM) system to global climate change is an interesting scientific problem that has enormous implications from the societal viewpoint. While the CMIP3 projections of future changes in monsoon precipitation used in the IPCC AR4 show major uncertainties, there is a growing recognition that the rapid increase of moisture in a warming climate can potentially enhance the stability of the large-scale tropical circulations. In this work, the authors have examined the stability of the SAM circulation based on diagnostic analysis of climate datasets over the past half century; and addressed the issue of likely future changes in the SAM in response to global warming using simulations from an ultra-high resolution (20 km) global climate model. Additional sensitivity experiments using a simplified atmospheric model have been presented to supplement the overall findings. The results here suggest that the intensity of the boreal summer monsoon overturning circulation and the associated southwesterly monsoon flow have significantly weakened during the past 50-years. The weakening trend of the monsoon circulation is further corroborated by a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate-to-heavy monsoon rainfall days and upward vertical velocities particularly over the narrow mountain ranges of the Western Ghats. Based on simulations from the 20-km ultra high-resolution model, it is argued that a stabilization (weakening) of the summer monsoon Hadley-type circulation in response to global warming can potentially lead to a weakened large-scale monsoon flow thereby resulting in weaker vertical velocities and reduced orographic precipitation over the narrow Western Ghat mountains by the end of the twenty-first century. Supplementary experiments using a simplified atmospheric model indicate a high sensitivity of the large-scale monsoon circulation to atmospheric stability in comparison with the effects of condensational heating. © 2012 Springer-Verlag. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55019
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, 411008, India; Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, Bangalore, India
Recommended Citation:
Krishnan R.,Sabin T.P.,Ayantika D.C.,et al. Will the South Asian monsoon overturning circulation stabilize any further?[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,40(2017-01-02)