DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1493-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84875709871
论文题名: The impact of the MJO on clusters of wintertime circulation anomalies over the North American region
作者: Riddle E.E. ; Stoner M.B. ; Johnson N.C. ; L'Heureux M.L. ; Collins D.C. ; Feldstein S.B.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 1749
结束页码: 1766
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Cluster analysis
; Extended range prediction
; Intraseasonal climate variability
; Model hindcasts
; The Arctic Oscillation (AO)
; The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
; The Pacific/North America pattern (PNA)
; Tropical-extratropical connections
英文摘要: Recent studies have shown that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) impacts the leading modes of intraseasonal variability in the northern hemisphere extratropics, providing a possible source of predictive skill over North America at intraseasonal timescales. We find that a k-means cluster analysis of mid-level geopotential height anomalies over the North American region identifies several wintertime cluster patterns whose probabilities are strongly modulated during and after MJO events, particularly during certain phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use a simple new optimization method for determining the number of clusters, k, and show that it results in a set of clusters which are robust to changes in the domain or time period examined. Several of the resulting cluster patterns resemble linear combinations of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern, but show even stronger responses to the MJO and ENSO than clusters based on the AO and PNA alone. A cluster resembling the positive (negative) PNA has elevated probabilities approximately 8-14 days following phase 6 (phase 3) of the MJO, while a negative AO-like cluster has elevated probabilities 10-20 days following phase 7 of the MJO. The observed relationships are relatively well reproduced in the 11-year daily reforecast dataset from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). This study statistically links MJO activity in the tropics to common intraseasonal circulation anomalies over the North American sector, establishing a framework that may be useful for improving extended range forecasts over this region. © 2012 Springer-Verlag. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55021
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, 5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740, United States; Wyle Science Technology and Engineering, 1600 International Drive, Suite 800, McLean, VA 22102, United States; International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, POST Bldg., Room 401, 1680 East-West Rd., Honolulu, HI 96822, United States; Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, 503 Walker Building, University Park, PA 16802, United States
Recommended Citation:
Riddle E.E.,Stoner M.B.,Johnson N.C.,et al. The impact of the MJO on clusters of wintertime circulation anomalies over the North American region[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,40(2017-07-08)