DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1401-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84871921219
论文题名: SST and circulation trend biases cause an underestimation of European precipitation trends
作者: van Haren R. ; van Oldenborgh G.J. ; Lenderink G. ; Collins M. ; Hazeleger W.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 1
结束页码: 20
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate models
; Europe
; Observations
; Precipitation
; Trends
; Uncertainty
英文摘要: Clear precipitation trends have been observed in Europe over the past century. In winter, precipitation has increased in north-western Europe. In summer, there has been an increase along many coasts in the same area. Over the second half of the past century precipitation also decreased in southern Europe in winter. An investigation of precipitation trends in two multi-model ensembles including both global and regional climate models shows that these models fail to reproduce the observed trends. In many regions the model spread does not cover the trend in the observations. In contrast, regional climate model (RCM) experiments with observed boundary conditions reproduce the observed precipitation trends much better. The observed trends are largely compatible with the range of uncertainties spanned by the ensemble, indicating that the boundary conditions of RCMs are responsible for large parts of the trend biases. We find that the main factor in setting the trend in winter is atmospheric circulation, for summer sea surface temperature (SST) is important in setting precipitation trends along the North Sea and Atlantic coasts. The causes of the large trends in atmospheric circulation and summer SST are not known. For SST there may be a connection with the well-known ocean circulation biases in low-resolution ocean models. A quantitative understanding of the causes of these trends is needed so that climate model based projections of future climate can be corrected for these precipitation trend biases. © 2012 Springer-Verlag. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55055
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Meteorology and Air Quality Section, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
van Haren R.,van Oldenborgh G.J.,Lenderink G.,et al. SST and circulation trend biases cause an underestimation of European precipitation trends[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,40(2017-01-02)