DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-2014-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84889261114
论文题名: Prediction of early summer rainfall over South China by a physical-empirical model
作者: Yim S.-Y. ; Wang B. ; Xing W.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 43, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 1883
结束页码: 1891
语种: 英语
英文关键词: East Asian subtropical front
; Indo-Pacific warm pool SST
; North Atlantic Ocean
; Okhotsk High
; Philippine Sea subtropical High
; Physical-empirical model
; South China rainfall index (SCRI)
英文摘要: In early summer (May–June, MJ) the strongest rainfall belt of the northern hemisphere occurs over the East Asian (EA) subtropical front. During this period the South China (SC) rainfall reaches its annual peak and represents the maximum rainfall variability over EA. Hence we establish an SC rainfall index, which is the MJ mean precipitation averaged over 72 stations over SC (south of 28°N and east of 110°E) and represents superbly the leading empirical orthogonal function mode of MJ precipitation variability over EA. In order to predict SC rainfall, we established a physical-empirical model. Analysis of 34-year observations (1979–2012) reveals three physically consequential predictors. A plentiful SC rainfall is preceded in the previous winter by (a) a dipole sea surface temperature (SST) tendency in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, (b) a tripolar SST tendency in North Atlantic Ocean, and (c) a warming tendency in northern Asia. These precursors foreshadow enhanced Philippine Sea subtropical High and Okhotsk High in early summer, which are controlling factors for enhanced subtropical frontal rainfall. The physical empirical model built on these predictors achieves a cross-validated forecast correlation skill of 0.75 for 1979–2012. Surprisingly, this skill is substantially higher than four-dynamical models’ ensemble prediction for 1979–2010 period (0.15). The results here suggest that the low prediction skill of current dynamical models is largely due to models’ deficiency and the dynamical prediction has large room to improve. © 2013, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: JAMSTEC, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
; NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
; NRF, National Research Foundation of Korea
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55056
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Yim S.-Y.,Wang B.,Xing W.. Prediction of early summer rainfall over South China by a physical-empirical model[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,43(2017-07-08)