DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1530-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84875692898
论文题名: Variability and trends of major stratospheric warmings in simulations under constant and increasing GHG concentrations
作者: Schimanke S. ; Spangehl T. ; Huebener H. ; Cubasch U.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 1733
结束页码: 1747
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Stratospheric variability
; Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW)
英文摘要: Ensemble simulations with a coupled ocean-troposphere-stratosphere model for the pre-industrial era (1860 AD), late twentieth century (1990 AD) greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, the SRES scenarios B1, A1B, A2, as well as stabilization experiments up to the Twenty-third century with B1 and A1B scenario GHG concentrations at their values at 2100, have been analyzed with regard to the occurrence of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). An automated algorithm using 60°N and 10 hPa zonal wind and the temperature gradient between 60°N and the North Pole is used to identify this phenomenon in the large data set. With 1990 CO2 concentrations (352 ppmv), the frequency of simulated SSWs in February and March is comparable to observation, but they are underestimated during November to January. All simulations show an increase in the number of SSWs from the pre-industrial period to the end of the twenty-first century, indicating that the increase of GHG is also reflected in the number of sudden warmings. However, a high variability partially masks the underlying trend. Multi-century averages during the stabilization periods indicate that the increase of SSWs is linear to the applied radiative forcing. A doubling of SSWs occurs when the GHG concentration reaches the level of the A2 scenario at the end of the twenty-first century (836 ppmv). The increase in SSWs in the projections is caused by a combination of increased wave flux from the troposphere and weaker middle atmospheric zonal winds. © 2012 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55072
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, 60176, Sweden; Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany; German Meteorological Service, Offenbach, Germany; Hessian Agency for Environment and Geology, Wiesbaden, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Schimanke S.,Spangehl T.,Huebener H.,et al. Variability and trends of major stratospheric warmings in simulations under constant and increasing GHG concentrations[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,40(2017-07-08)