| DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-012-1424-y
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84868144673
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| 论文题名: | An empirical model of decadal ENSO variability |
| 作者: | Kravtsov S.
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| 刊名: | Climate Dynamics
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| ISSN: | 9307575
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| 出版年: | 2012
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| 卷: | 39, 期:2017-09-10 | | 起始页码: | 2377
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| 结束页码: | 2391
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | AMO
; Data modeling
; Decadal climate variability
; ENSO
; PDO
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| 英文摘要: | This paper assesses potential predictability of decadal variations in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characteristics by constructing and performing simulations using an empirical nonlinear stochastic model of an ENSO index. The model employs decomposition of global sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies into the modes that maximize the ratio of interdecadal-to-subdecadal SST variance to define low-frequency predictors called the canonical variates (CVs). When the whole available SST time series is so processed, the leading canonical variate (CV-1) is found to be well correlated with the area-averaged SST time series which exhibits a non-uniform warming trend, while the next two (CV-2 and CV-3) describe secular variability arguably associated with a combination of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) signals. The corresponding ENSO model that uses either all three (CVs 1-3) or only AMO/PDO-related (CVs 2 and 3) predictors captures well the observed autocorrelation function, probability density function, seasonal dependence of ENSO, and, most importantly, the observed interdecadal modulation of ENSO variance. The latter modulation, and its dependence on CVs, is shown to be inconsistent with the null hypothesis of random decadal ENSO variations simulated by multivariate linear inverse models. Cross-validated hindcasts of ENSO variance suggest a potential useful skill at decadal lead times. These findings thus argue that decadal modulations of ENSO variability may be predictable subject to our ability to forecast AMO/PDO-type climate modes; the latter forecasts may need to be based on simulations of dynamical models, rather than on a purely statistical scheme as in the present paper. © 2012 Springer-Verlag. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55100
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: | Department of Mathematical Sciences, Atmospheric Sciences Group, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, P. O. Box 413, Milwaukee, WI 53201, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Kravtsov S.. An empirical model of decadal ENSO variability[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,39(2017-09-10)
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