DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1418-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84869431202
论文题名: Evaluating explanatory models of the spatial pattern of surface climate trends using model selection and bayesian averaging methods
作者: McKitrick R. ; Tole L.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 39, 期: 12 起始页码: 2867
结束页码: 2882
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bayesian model averaging
; Climate data contamination, spatial autocorrelation
; Encompassing tests
; GCM testing
; Non-nested tests
; Spatial trend patterns
英文摘要: We evaluate three categories of variables for explaining the spatial pattern of warming and cooling trends over land: predictions of general circulation models (GCMs) in response to observed forcings; geographical factors like latitude and pressure; and socioeconomic influences on the land surface and data quality. Spatial autocorrelation (SAC) in the observed trend pattern is removed from the residuals by a well-specified explanatory model. Encompassing tests show that none of the three classes of variables account for the contributions of the other two, though 20 of 22 GCMs individually contribute either no significant explanatory power or yield a trend pattern negatively correlated with observations. Non-nested testing rejects the null hypothesis that socioeconomic variables have no explanatory power. We apply a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method to search over all possible linear combinations of explanatory variables and generate posterior coefficient distributions robust to model selection. These results, confirmed by classical encompassing tests, indicate that the geographical variables plus three of the 22 GCMs and three socioeconomic variables provide all the explanatory power in the data set. We conclude that the most valid model of the spatial pattern of trends in land surface temperature records over 1979-2002 requires a combination of the processes represented in some GCMs and certain socioeconomic measures that capture data quality variations and changes to the land surface. © 2012 Springer-Verlag. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55112
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Economics, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada; Department of Economics, Strathclyde University, Glasgow, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
McKitrick R.,Tole L.. Evaluating explanatory models of the spatial pattern of surface climate trends using model selection and bayesian averaging methods[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,39(12)