DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1306-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84868094123
论文题名: Detectability of changes to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the Hadley Centre Climate Models
作者: Roberts C.D. ; Palmer M.D.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 39, 期: 2017-09-10 起始页码: 2533
结束页码: 2546
语种: 英语
英文关键词: AMOC
; Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
; Climate model
; Detection
; MOC
英文摘要: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is responsible for a climatically significant northward heat transport that is expected to decrease in response to anthropogenic global warming. Here, simulations from an ensemble of UK Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Models (HadGEM1, HadGEM2 and a 22 member perturbed physics ensemble of HadCM3-like models) are used to evaluate detection times for different MOC observing strategies. Six different detection statistics are compared, including direct observations of the MOC at two latitudes (26°N and 50°N) and several multivariate detection variables based on an optimal fingerprint of MOC change previously identified using HadCM3 (Vellinga and Wood in Geophys Res Lett 31(14):L14203, 2004). Using these models, and assuming perfectly observed conditions, we find no evidence to suggest that detection times would be significantly reduced by measuring the MOC at 50°N instead of (or in addition to) measurements at 26°N. Our results suggest that complementary observations of hydrographic properties in the North Atlantic may help reduce MOC detection times, but the benefits are not universal across models, nor as large as previously suggested. In addition, detection times calculated using optimal fingerprint methods are sensitive to the model-dependent estimates of covariances describing internal climate variability. This last result presents a strong case for deriving fingerprints of MOC change using dynamical/physical arguments, rather than statistical methods, in order to promote more robust results across a range of models. © 2012 Crown Copyright. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55120
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Roberts C.D.,Palmer M.D.. Detectability of changes to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the Hadley Centre Climate Models[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,39(2017-09-10)