globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1223-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84868097828
论文题名:
Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projected by multi-physics and multi-SST ensemble experiments using the 60-km-mesh MRI-AGCM
作者: Murakami H.; Mizuta R.; Shindo E.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 39, 期:2017-09-10
起始页码: 2569
结束页码: 2584
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Ensemble experiments ; Future projections ; Global warming ; High-resolution model ; Tropical cyclones ; Uncertainties
英文摘要: Uncertainties in projected future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity are investigated using future (2075-2099) ensemble projections of global warming under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. Twelve ensemble experiments are performed using three different cumulus convection schemes and four different assumptions for prescribed future sea surface temperatures (SSTs). All ensemble experiments consistently project significant reductions in global and hemispheric TC genesis numbers as well as reductions in TC frequency of occurrence (TCF) and TC genesis frequency (TGF) in the western North Pacific, South Indian Ocean, and South Pacific Ocean. TCF and TGF are projected to increase over the central Pacific which is consistent with the findings of Li et al. (2010). Inter-experimental variations of projected future changes in TGF and TC genesis number are caused mainly by differences in large-scale dynamical parameters and SST anomalies. Thermodynamic parameters are of secondary importance for variations in TGF and TC genesis number. These results imply that differences in SST spatial patterns can cause substantial variations and uncertainties in projected future changes of TGF and TC numbers at ocean-basin scales. © 2012 The Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55123
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作者单位: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Tech. (JAMSTEC)/Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), 1-1, Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan; International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Climate Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), 1-1, Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan

Recommended Citation:
Murakami H.,Mizuta R.,Shindo E.. Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projected by multi-physics and multi-SST ensemble experiments using the 60-km-mesh MRI-AGCM[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,39(2017-09-10)
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