DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1330-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84869469685
论文题名: Higher precision estimates of regional polar warming by ensemble regression of climate model projections
作者: Bracegirdle T.J. ; Stephenson D.B.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 39, 期: 12 起始页码: 2805
结束页码: 2821
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Antarctic
; Arctic
; Climate model
; CMIP3
; CMIP5
; Observational constraint
; Polar climate
; Regional climate
; Sea ice edge
; Southern Ocean
; Weighting
英文摘要: This study presents projections of twenty-first century wintertime surface temperature changes over the high-latitude regions based on the third Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3) multi-model ensemble. The state-dependence of the climate change response on the present day mean state is captured using a simple yet robust ensemble linear regression model. The ensemble regression approach gives different and more precise estimated mean responses compared to the ensemble mean approach. Over the Arctic in January, ensemble regression gives less warming than the ensemble mean along the boundary between sea ice and open ocean (sea ice edge). Most notably, the results show 3 °C less warming over the Barents Sea (~7 °C compared to ~10 °C). In addition, the ensemble regression method gives projections that are 30 % more precise over the Sea of Okhostk, Bering Sea and Labrador Sea. For the Antarctic in winter (July) the ensemble regression method gives 2 °C more warming over the Southern Ocean close to the Greenwich Meridian (~7 °C compared to ~5 °C). Projection uncertainty was almost half that of the ensemble mean uncertainty over the Southern Ocean between 30° W to 90° E and 30 % less over the northern Antarctic Peninsula. The ensemble regression model avoids the need for explicit ad hoc weighting of models and exploits the whole ensemble to objectively identify overly influential outlier models. Bootstrap resampling shows that maximum precision over the Southern Ocean can be obtained with ensembles having as few as only six climate models. © 2012 Springer-Verlag. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55125
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, United Kingdom; Mathematics Research Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; NCAS-Climate, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Bracegirdle T.J.,Stephenson D.B.. Higher precision estimates of regional polar warming by ensemble regression of climate model projections[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,39(12)