DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1341-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84867102769
论文题名: Quasiperiodic climate variability with a period of 50-80 years: Fourier analysis of measurements and Earth System Model simulations
作者: Henriksson S.V. ; Räisänen P. ; Silén J. ; Laaksonen A.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 39, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 1999
结束页码: 2011
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Global mean temperature
; Multidecadal climate variability
; Spectral analysis
英文摘要: We examine an oscillation of global mean temperature with a period of about two thirds of a century. We find evidence for the oscillation both in the instrumental temperature record and in an Earth System Model millennium simulation without external forcing. There is also evidence for the oscillation in the Central England Temperature record, the longest instrumental record available. Our method is based on a discrete Fourier transform with varying starting point and length of time window. This method allows us to make a quantitative estimate of the contribution of an oscillation to global mean temperature, to track the phase evolution of the oscillation and to compare measurement and model results. The multidecadal oscillation could provide part of the explanation both for near-constant global mean temperatures in recent years despite warming by rising concentrations of greenhouse gases and for declining global mean temperature in the 1950s and 1960s alongside with the explanation of aerosol cooling. Quantitative estimates of the contribution of the oscillation to global mean temperature vary between ±(0. 03-0. 17) K. For the instrumental temperature record, our results indicate an amplitude of 0.03 K presently if the IPCC model average represents the effect of external forcings well, and (0.08-0.17) K when using simple linear and quadratic fits for detrending. For the millennium simulation, the amplitude of the oscillation is (0.05-0.06) K, but could be underestimated as compared to reality if external forcing acts to globally synchronize multidecadal variability. The role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in the model is discussed. The AMO has a spatial temperature distribution similar to earlier literature results and is more correlated with the global oscillation when external forcing is included. © 2012 Springer-Verlag. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55160
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; Department of Applied Physics, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland
Recommended Citation:
Henriksson S.V.,Räisänen P.,Silén J.,et al. Quasiperiodic climate variability with a period of 50-80 years: Fourier analysis of measurements and Earth System Model simulations[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,39(2017-07-08)