DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1202-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84867102115
论文题名: Dynamical seasonal prediction using the global environmental multiscale model with a variable resolution modeling approach
作者: Markovic M. ; Lin H. ; Winger K.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 39, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 1885
结束页码: 1904
语种: 英语
英文摘要: In this work we evaluate seasonal forecasts performed with the global environmental multiscale model (GEM) using a variable resolution approach and with a high-resolution region over different geographical locations. Therefore, using two grid positions, one over North America and the other over the tropical Pacific-eastern Indian Ocean, we compare the seasonal predictions performed with the variable resolution approach with seasonal forecast performed with the uniform grid GEM model. For each model configuration, a ten-member ensemble forecast of 4 months is performed starting from the first of December of selected ENSO winters between 1982 and 2000. The sea surface temperature anomaly of the month preceding the forecast (November) is persisted throughout the forecast period. There is not enough evidence to indicate that a Stretch-Grid configuration has a clear advantage in seasonal prediction compared to a Uniform-Grid configuration. Forecasts with highly resolved grids placed over North America have more accurate seasonal mean anomalies and more skill in representing near surface temperature over the North American continent. For 500-hPa geopotential height, however, no configuration stands out to be consistently superior in forecasting the ENSO related seasonal mean anomalies and skill score. © 2011 Springer-Verlag. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55168
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Quebec at Montreal, 201, Président Kennedy, PK-2610, Montreal, QC H2X 3Y7, Canada; Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Montreal, QC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Markovic M.,Lin H.,Winger K.. Dynamical seasonal prediction using the global environmental multiscale model with a variable resolution modeling approach[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,39(2017-07-08)