| DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-011-1251-6
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84865584905
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| 论文题名: | On the link between extreme floods and excess monsoon epochs in South Asia |
| 作者: | Kale V.
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| 刊名: | Climate Dynamics
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| ISSN: | 9307575
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| 出版年: | 2012
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| 卷: | 39, 期:5 | | 起始页码: | 1107
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| 结束页码: | 1122
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Excess monsoon rainfall periods
; Extreme floods
; Large rivers
; Palaeofloods
; South Asia
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| 英文摘要: | This paper provides a synoptic view of extreme monsoon floods on all the nine large rivers of South Asia and their association with the excess (above-normal) monsoon rainfall periods. Annual maximum flood series for 18 gauging stations spread over four countries (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal) and long-term monsoon rainfall data were analyzed to ascertain whether the extreme floods were clustered in time and whether they coincided with multi-decade excess monsoon rainfall epochs at the basin level. Simple techniques, such as the Cramer's t-test, regression and Mann-Kendall (MK) tests and Hurst method were used to evaluate the trends and patterns of the flood and rainfall series. MK test reveals absence of any long-term tendency in all the series. However, the Cramer's t test and Hurst-Mandelbrot rescaled range statistic provide evidence that both rainfall and flood time series are persistent. Using the Cramer's t-test the excess monsoon epochs for each basin were identified. The excess monsoon periods for different basins were found to be highly asynchronous with respect to duration as well as the beginning and end. Three main conclusions readily emerge from the analyses. Extreme floods (>90th percentile) in South Asia show a tendency to cluster in time. About three-fourth of the extreme floods have occurred during the excess monsoon periods between ~1840 and 2000 AD, implying a noteworthy link between the two. The frequency of large floods was higher during the post-1940 period in general and during three decades (1940s, 1950s and 1980s) in particular. © 2011 Springer-Verlag. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55197
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: | Department of Geography, University of Pune, Pune 411007, India
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Kale V.. On the link between extreme floods and excess monsoon epochs in South Asia[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,39(5)
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