globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1359-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84862976492
论文题名:
Assessment of the APCC coupled MME suite in predicting the distinctive climate impacts of two flavors of ENSO during boreal winter
作者: Jeong H.-I.; Lee D.Y.; Ashok K.; Ahn J.-B.; Lee J.-Y.; Luo J.-J.; Schemm J.-K.E.; Hendon H.H.; Braganza K.; Ham Y.-G.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 39, 期:2017-01-02
起始页码: 475
结束页码: 493
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Canonical ENSO ; Coupled general circulation model ; El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ; ENSO Modoki ; Multi-model ensemble (MME) ; Seasonal prediction skill ; Teleconnection
英文摘要: Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 1982-2004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55225
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: APEC Climate Center (APCC), Pusan, South Korea; Pusan National University, Pusan, South Korea; Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India; International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, United States; Research Institute for Global Change/JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan; NCEP/NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Camp Spring, MD, United States; Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/GSFC), Greenbelt, MD, United States; Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research Studies and Investigations, Universities Space Research Association, Greenbelt, MD, United States

Recommended Citation:
Jeong H.-I.,Lee D.Y.,Ashok K.,et al. Assessment of the APCC coupled MME suite in predicting the distinctive climate impacts of two flavors of ENSO during boreal winter[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,39(2017-01-02)
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