DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1268-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84864385088
论文题名: Potential use of a regional climate model in seasonal tropical cyclone activity predictions in the western North Pacific
作者: Au-Yeung A.Y.M. ; Chan J.C.L.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 39, 期: 3 起始页码: 783
结束页码: 794
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Regional climate modeling
; Seasonal tropical cyclone activity
; Western North Pacific
英文摘要: This study investigates the potential use of a regional climate model in forecasting seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity. A modified version of Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) is used to examine the ability of the model to simulate TC genesis and landfalling TC tracks for the active TC season in the western North Pacific. In the model, a TC is identified as a vortex satisfying several conditions, including local maximum relative vorticity at 850 hPa with a value ≥450 × 10-6 s-1, and the temperature at 300 hPa being 1°C higher than the average temperature within 15° latitude radius from the TC center. Tracks are traced by following these found vortices. Six-month ensemble (8 members each) simulations are performed for each year from 1982 to 2001 so that the climatology of the model can be compared to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) observed best-track dataset. The 20-year ensemble experiments show that the RegCM3 can be used to simulate vortices with a wind structure and temperature profile similar to those of real TCs. The model also reproduces tracks very similar to those observed with features like genesis in the tropics, recurvature at higher latitudes and landfall/decay. The similarity of the 500-hPa geopotential height patterns between RegCM3 and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40 Year Re-analysis (ERA-40) shows that the model can simulate the subtropical high to a large extent. The simulated climatological monthly spatial distributions as well as the interannual variability of TC occurrence are also similar to the JTWC data. These results imply the possibility of producing seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclones using real-time global climate model predictions as boundary conditions for the RegCM3. © 2011 Springer-Verlag. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55240
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, 83 Tat Chee Ave., Kowloon, Hong Kong, China
Recommended Citation:
Au-Yeung A.Y.M.,Chan J.C.L.. Potential use of a regional climate model in seasonal tropical cyclone activity predictions in the western North Pacific[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,39(3)