DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1061-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84861828046
论文题名: Evaluation of the ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts of Indian summer monsoon variability
作者: Rajeevan M. ; Unnikrishnan C.K. ; Preethi B.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 38, 期: 2017-11-12 起始页码: 2257
结束页码: 2274
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Coupled climate models
; El Nino
; Indian monsoon
; Seasonal forecast
英文摘要: The performance of the new multi-model seasonal prediction system developed in the frame work of the ENSEMBLES EU project for the seasonal forecasts of India summer monsoon variability is compared with the results from the previous EU project, DEMETER. We have considered the results of six participating ocean-atmosphere coupled models with 9 ensemble members each for the common period of 1960-2005 with May initial conditions. The ENSEMBLES multi-model ensemble (MME) results show systematic biases in the representation of mean monsoon seasonal rainfall over the Indian region, which are similar to that of DEMETER. The ENSEMBLES coupled models are characterized by an excessive oceanic forcing on the atmosphere over the equatorial Indian Ocean. The skill of the seasonal forecasts of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by the ENSEMBLES MME has however improved significantly compared to the DEMETER MME. Its performance in the drought years like 1972, 1974, 1982 and the excess year of 1961 was in particular better than the DEMETER MME. The ENSEMBLES MME could not capture the recent weakening of the ENSO-Indian monsoon relationship resulting in a decrease in the prediction skill compared to the "perfect model" skill during the recent years. The ENSEMBLES MME however correctly captures the north Atlantic-Indian monsoon teleconnections, which are independent of ENSO. © 2011 Springer-Verlag. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55269
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, Gadanki 517112, India; Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune 411008, India
Recommended Citation:
Rajeevan M.,Unnikrishnan C.K.,Preethi B.. Evaluation of the ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts of Indian summer monsoon variability[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,38(2017-11-12)