DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1175-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84858999814
论文题名: Statistical downscaling of historical monthly mean winds over a coastal region of complex terrain. II. Predicting wind components
作者: van der Kamp D. ; Curry C.L. ; Monahan A.H.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 38, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 1301
结束页码: 1311
语种: 英语
英文关键词: North America
; Regional climate
; Statistical downscaling
; Wind
英文摘要: A regression-based downscaling technique was applied to monthly mean surface wind observations from stations throughout western Canada as well as from buoys in the Northeast Pacific Ocean over the period 1979-2006. A predictor set was developed from principal component analysis of the three wind components at 500 hPa and mean sea-level pressure taken from the NCEP Reanalysis II. Building on the results of a companion paper, Curry et al. (Clim Dyn 2011, doi: 10. 1007/s00382-011-1173-3), the downscaling was applied to both wind speed and wind components, in an effort to evaluate the utility of each type of predictand. Cross-validated prediction skill varied strongly with season, with autumn and summer displaying the highest and lowest skill, respectively. In most cases wind components were predicted with better skill than wind speeds. The predictive ability of wind components was found to be strongly related to their orientation. Wind components with the best predictions were often oriented along topographically significant features such as constricted valleys, mountain ranges or ocean channels. This influence of directionality on predictive ability is most prominent during autumn and winter at inland sites with complex topography. Stations in regions with relatively flat terrain (where topographic steering is minimal) exhibit inter-station consistencies including region-wide seasonal shifts in the direction of the best predicted wind component. The conclusion that wind components can be skillfully predicted only over a limited range of directions at most stations limits the scope of statistically downscaled wind speed predictions. It seems likely that such limitations apply to other regions of complex terrain as well. © 2011 Her Majesty the Queen in the Right of Canada as represented by the Minister of the Environment. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55336
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 3V6, Canada; School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 3V6, Canada
Recommended Citation:
van der Kamp D.,Curry C.L.,Monahan A.H.. Statistical downscaling of historical monthly mean winds over a coastal region of complex terrain. II. Predicting wind components[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,38(2017-07-08)