DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1091-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84859006150
论文题名: Statistical significance of trends in monthly heavy precipitation over the US
作者: Mahajan S. ; North G.R. ; Saravanan R. ; Genton M.G.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 38, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 1375
结束页码: 1387
语种: 英语
英文摘要: Trends in monthly heavy precipitation, defined by a return period of one year, are assessed for statistical significance in observations and Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations over the contiguous United States using Monte Carlo non-parametric and parametric bootstrapping techniques. The results from the two Monte Carlo approaches are found to be similar to each other, and also to the traditional non-parametric Kendall's τ test, implying the robustness of the approach. Two different observational data-sets are employed to test for trends in monthly heavy precipitation and are found to exhibit consistent results. Both data-sets demonstrate upward trends, one of which is found to be statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Upward trends similar to observations are observed in some climate model simulations of the twentieth century, but their statistical significance is marginal. For projections of the twenty-first century, a statistically significant upwards trend is observed in most of the climate models analyzed. The change in the simulated precipitation variance appears to be more important in the twenty-first century projections than changes in the mean precipitation. Stochastic fluctuations of the climate-system are found to be dominate monthly heavy precipitation as some GCM simulations show a downwards trend even in the twenty-first century projections when the greenhouse gas forcings are strong. © 2011 Springer-Verlag. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55344
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Computational Earth Sciences, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, One Bethel Valley Road, PO Box 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37830-6301, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas AandM University, College Station, TX 77843-3150, United States; Department of Statistics, Texas AandM University, College Station, TX 77843-3143, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mahajan S.,North G.R.,Saravanan R.,et al. Statistical significance of trends in monthly heavy precipitation over the US[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,38(2017-07-08)