DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1121-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84856292593
论文题名: Sensitivity of the southern annular mode to greenhouse gas emission scenarios
作者: Simpkins G.R. ; Karpechko A.Y.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 38, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 563
结束页码: 572
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Annular mode
; Greenhouse gas sensitivity
; IPCC
; Multi-model ensemble
; SAM
; SRES
英文摘要: The leading mode of southern hemisphere (SH) climatic variability, the southern annular mode (SAM), has recently seen a shift towards its positive phase due to stratospheric ozone depletion and increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Here we examine how sensitive the SAM (defined as the leading empirical orthogonal function of SH sea level pressure anomalies) is to future GHG concentrations. We determine its likely evolution for three intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES) for austral summer and winter, using a multi-model ensemble of IPCC fourth assessment report models which resolve stratospheric ozone recovery. During the period of summer ozone recovery (2000-2050), the SAM index exhibits weakly negative, statistically insignificant trends due to stratospheric ozone recovery which offsets the positive forcing imposed by increasing GHG concentrations. Thereafter, positive SAM index trends occur with magnitudes that show sensitivity to the SRES scenario utilised, and thus future GHG emissions. Trends are determined to be strongest for SRES A2, followed by A1B and B1, respectively. The winter SAM maintains a similar dependency upon GHG as summer, but over the entire twenty-first century and to a greater extent. We also examine the influence of ozone recovery by comparing results to models that exclude stratospheric ozone recovery. Projections are shown to be statistically different from the aforementioned results, highlighting the importance of ozone recovery in governing SAM-evolution. We therefore demonstrate that the future SAM will depend both upon GHG emissions and stratospheric ozone recovery. © 2011 Springer-Verlag. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55389
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Science, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; Arctic Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Recommended Citation:
Simpkins G.R.,Karpechko A.Y.. Sensitivity of the southern annular mode to greenhouse gas emission scenarios[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,38(2017-03-04)