DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0969-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84855261301
论文题名: North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and surface wind in the Northeast of the Iberian Peninsula: Uncertainty and long term downscaled variability
作者: García-Bustamante E. ; González-Rouco J.F. ; Navarro J. ; Xoplaki E. ; Jiménez P.A. ; Montávez J.P.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 38, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 141
结束页码: 160
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Past reconstruction
; Sensitivity
; Spatial and temporal variability
; Statistical downscaling
; Wind
英文摘要: The variability and predictability of the surface wind field at the regional scale is explored over a complex terrain region in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula by means of a downscaling technique based on Canonical Correlation Analysis. More than a decade of observations (1992-2005) allows for calibrating and validating a statistical method that elicits the main associations between the large scale atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean areas and the regional wind field. In an initial step the downscaling model is designed by selecting parameter values from practise. To a large extent, the variability of the wind at monthly timescales is found to be governed by the large scale circulation modulated by the particular orographic features of the area. The sensitivity of the downscaling methodology to the selection of the model parameter values is explored, in a second step, by performing a systematic sampling of the parameters space, avoiding a heuristic selection. This provides a metric for the uncertainty associated with the various possible model configurations. The uncertainties associated with the model configuration are considerably dependent on the spatial variability of the wind. While the sampling of the parameters space in the model set up moderately impact estimations during the calibration period, the regional wind variability is very sensitive to the parameters selection at longer timescales. This fact illustrates that downscaling exercises based on a single configuration of parameters should be interpreted with extreme caution. The downscaling model is used to extend the estimations several centuries to the past using long datasets of sea level pressure, thereby illustrating the large temporal variability of the regional wind field from interannual to multicentennial timescales. The analysis does not evidence long term trends throughout the twentieth century, however anomalous episodes of high/low wind speeds are identified. © 2010 Springer-Verlag. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55406
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Departamento de Energías Renovables, CIEMAT, Avenida Complutense s/n, 28040 Madrid, Spain; Departamento de Astrofísica y CC. de la Atmósfera, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain; Institute of Geography and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Departamento de Física, Universidad de Murcia, Murcia, Spain
Recommended Citation:
García-Bustamante E.,González-Rouco J.F.,Navarro J.,et al. North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and surface wind in the Northeast of the Iberian Peninsula: Uncertainty and long term downscaled variability[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,38(2017-01-02)