globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/2013GL057999
论文题名:
Uncertainty in annual rankings from NOAA's global temperature time series
作者: Arguez A.; Karl T.R.; Squires M.F.; Vose R.S.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8353
EISSN: 1944-8084
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期:22
起始页码: 5965
结束页码: 5969
语种: 英语
英文关键词: global ; Monte Carlo ; temperature ; uncertainty
Scopus关键词: Degree of uncertainty ; global ; Global temperatures ; National climatic data centers ; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ; Statistical independence ; Surface temperatures ; uncertainty ; Atmospheric temperature ; Monte Carlo methods ; Temperature ; Uncertainty analysis ; Time series ; error analysis ; global climate ; Monte Carlo analysis ; NOAA satellite ; ranking ; surface temperature ; temporal analysis ; time series ; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Annual rankings of global temperature are an important component of climate monitoring. However, there is some degree of uncertainty for every yearly value in the global temperature time series, which leads to uncertainty in annual rankings as well. This study applies a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center's global land-ocean surface temperature (NOAATMP) time series. Accounting for persistence between years does not materially affect the results versus presuming statistical independence. The highest probabilities for the warmest year analysis (1880-2012) are associated with the years 2010 (∼36%), 2005 (∼28%), and 1998 (∼11%). The current separation among the warmest observed years is relatively small compared to the standard errors of the NOAATMP time series. However, each year between 1997 and 2012 was warmer than the vast majority of all other years since 1880 at the 95% confidence level. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84890462785&doi=10.1002%2f2013GL057999&partnerID=40&md5=ca3dc4eef45eb5bb8b8ac5c4abab140b
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/5617
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作者单位: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Climatic Data Center, 151 Patton Ave., Asheville, NC 28801, United States

Recommended Citation:
Arguez A.,Karl T.R.,Squires M.F.,et al. Uncertainty in annual rankings from NOAA's global temperature time series[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(22).
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