DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058051
论文题名: Improved forecast skill in the tropics in the new MiKlip decadal climate predictions
作者: Pohlmann H. ; Müller W.A. ; Kulkarni K. ; Kameswarrao M. ; Matei D. ; Vamborg F.S.E. ; Kadow C. ; Illing S. ; Marotzke J.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8401
EISSN: 1944-8132
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 21 起始页码: 5798
结束页码: 5802
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5
; decadal prediction
; model resolution
; quasi-biennial oscillation
; tropical bias
Scopus关键词: CMIP5
; Decadal predictions
; Model resolution
; Quasi-biennial oscillation
; tropical bias
; Atmospheric temperature
; Forecasting
; Oscillators (mechanical)
; Tropics
; air temperature
; atmospheric modeling
; forecasting method
; numerical model
; performance assessment
; prediction
; quasi-biennial oscillation
; resolution
英文摘要: We introduce an improved initialization to the decadal predictions performed for the Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen (MiKlip) project based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model and furthermore test the effect of increased ocean and atmosphere model resolutions. The new initialization includes both a more sophisticated oceanic initialization and additionally an atmospheric initialization. We compare the performance of retrospective decadal forecasts over the past 50 years with that of the previous system. The new oceanic initialization considerably improves the performance in terms of surface air temperature over the tropical oceans on the 2-5 years time scale, which also helps to improve the predictive skill of global mean surface air temperature on this time scale. The higher model resolution improves the predictive skill of surface air temperature over the tropical Pacific even further. Through the newly introduced atmospheric initialization, the quasi-biennial oscillation exhibits predictive skill of up to 4 years when a sufficiently high vertical atmospheric resolution is used. Key Points The new initialization improves temperature predictions in the tropics A higher model resolution leads to further improvements in the tropical Pacific The quasi-biennial oscillation exhibits prediction skill of up to 4 years ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84887564079&doi=10.1002%2f2013GL058051&partnerID=40&md5=afa0650a24f3f5a2a4b1c5d6cc0306d8
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/5665
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, Hamburg DE-20146, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Pohlmann H.,Müller W.A.,Kulkarni K.,et al. Improved forecast skill in the tropics in the new MiKlip decadal climate predictions[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(21).