DOI: 10.1002/grl.50991
论文题名: Low-order stochastic model and "past-noise forecasting" of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
作者: Kondrashov D. ; Chekroun M.D. ; Robertson A.W. ; Ghil M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8514
EISSN: 1944-8245
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 19 起始页码: 5305
结束页码: 5310
语种: 英语
英文关键词: MJO modeling
; pathwise forecasting
; predictability
; stochastic reduced models
Scopus关键词: Low-dimensional models
; Low-frequency modes
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; Multi-model ensemble
; predictability
; Reduced model
; Serial correlation
; Singular spectrum analysis
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; Spectrum analysis
; Stochastic systems
; White noise
; Stochastic models
; empirical analysis
; forecasting method
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; nonlinearity
; seasonality
; spectrum
; stochasticity
; Indian Ocean
英文摘要: This paper presents a predictability study of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that relies on combining empirical model reduction (EMR) with the "past-noise forecasting" (PNF) method. EMR is a data-driven methodology for constructing stochastic low-dimensional models that account for nonlinearity, seasonality and serial correlation in the estimated noise, while PNF constructs an ensemble of forecasts that accounts for interactions between (i) high-frequency variability (noise), estimated here by EMR, and (ii) the low-frequency mode of MJO, as captured by singular spectrum analysis (SSA). A key result is that - compared to an EMR ensemble driven by generic white noise - PNF is able to considerably improve prediction of MJO phase. When forecasts are initiated from weak MJO conditions, the useful skill is of up to 30 days. PNF also significantly improves MJO prediction skill for forecasts that start over the Indian Ocean. Key Points Nonlinear stochastic MJO model with memory effects derived from RMM indices PNF method significantly improves MJO prediction PNF skill is comparable with skill reported for a dynamical multi-model ensemble ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84885363005&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50991&partnerID=40&md5=cb83e21636fa902958400c47b478c6c6
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/5778
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, 405 Hilgard Ave., Los Angeles, CA 90095-1565, United States
Recommended Citation:
Kondrashov D.,Chekroun M.D.,Robertson A.W.,et al. Low-order stochastic model and "past-noise forecasting" of the Madden-Julian Oscillation[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(19).