DOI: 10.1002/grl.50686
论文题名: Multimodel projections and uncertainties of irrigation water demand under climate change
作者: Wada Y. ; Wisser D. ; Eisner S. ; Flörke M. ; Gerten D. ; Haddeland I. ; Hanasaki N. ; Masaki Y. ; Portmann F.T. ; Stacke T. ; Tessler Z. ; Schewe J.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8593
EISSN: 1944-8324
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 17 起始页码: 4626
结束页码: 4632
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; CMIP5
; Emission scenarios
; Global hydrological models
; Irrigation water demand
; Uncertainty
Scopus关键词: CMIP5
; Emission scenario
; Hydrological models
; Irrigation waters
; Uncertainty
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Hydrology
; Irrigation
; Water supply
; Uncertainty analysis
; climate change
; climate modeling
; crop
; global climate
; global warming
; greenhouse gas
; irrigation
; Northern Hemisphere
; summer
; water demand
英文摘要: Crop irrigation is responsible for 70% of humanity's water demand. Since the late 1990s, the expansion of irrigated areas has been tapering off, and this trend is expected to continue in the future. Future irrigation water demand (IWD) is, however, subject to large uncertainties due to anticipated climate change. Here, we use a set of seven global hydrological models (GHMs) to quantify the impact of projected global climate change on IWD on currently irrigated areas by the end of this century, and to assess the resulting uncertainties arising from both the GHMs and climate projections. The resulting ensemble projections generally show an increasing trend in future IWD, but the increase varies substantially depending on the degree of global warming and associated regional precipitation changes. Under the highest greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5), IWD will considerably increase during the summer in the Northern Hemisphere (>20% by 2100), and the present peak IWD is projected to shift one month or more over regions where ≥80% of the global irrigated areas exist and 4 billion people currently live. Uncertainties arising from GHMs and global climate models (GCMs) are large, with GHM uncertainty dominating throughout the century and with GCM uncertainty substantially increasing from the midcentury, indicating the choice of GHM outweighing by far the uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM and associated emission scenario. Key Points IWD will considerably increase during the summer in the Northern Hemisphere Peak demand is projected to shift over 80% of the present irrigated areas Global hydrological models dominate the uncertainty in projected IWD ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84883637707&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50686&partnerID=40&md5=21f1446cd0c07ab9c42ace7211af3546
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/5857
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Postbus 80.115, 3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Wada Y.,Wisser D.,Eisner S.,et al. Multimodel projections and uncertainties of irrigation water demand under climate change[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(17).