DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2016.06.006
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84989878617
论文题名: A multi-state weather generator for daily precipitation for the Torne River basin, northern Sweden/western Finland
作者: Rayner D. ; Achberger C. ; Chen D.
刊名: Advances in Climate Change Research
ISSN: 16749278
出版年: 2016
卷: 7, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 70
结束页码: 81
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Multi-state
; Precipitation
; Torne River
; Weather generator
英文摘要: This paper describes a new weather generator – the 10-state empirical model – that combines a 10-state, first-order Markov chain with a non-parametric precipitation amounts model. Using a doubly-stochastic transition-matrix results in a weather generator for which the overall precipitation distribution (including both wet and dry days) and the temporal-correlation can be modified independently for climate change studies. This paper assesses the ability of the 10-state empirical model to simulate daily area-average precipitation in the Torne River catchment in northern Sweden/western Finland in the context of 3 other models: a 10-state model with a parametric (Gamma) amounts model; a wet/dry chain with the empirical amounts model; and a wet/dry chain with the parametric amounts model. The ability to accurately simulate the distribution of multi-day precipitation in the catchment is the primary consideration. Results showed that the 10-state empirical model represented accumulated 2- to 14-day precipitation most realistically. Further, the distribution of precipitation on wet days in the catchment is related to the placement of a wet day within a wet-spell, and the 10-state models represented this realistically, while the wet/dry models did not. Although all four models accurately reproduced the annual and monthly averages in the training data, all models underestimated inter-annual and inter-seasonal variance. Even so, the 10-state empirical model performed best. We conclude that the multi-state model is a promising candidate for hydrological applications, as it simulates multi-day precipitation well, but that further development is required to improve the simulation of interannual variation. © 2016 National Climate Center (China Meteorological Administration) 资助项目: Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/58846
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Rayner D.,Achberger C.,Chen D.. A multi-state weather generator for daily precipitation for the Torne River basin, northern Sweden/western Finland[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2016-01-01,7(2017-01-02)