DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2015.06.002
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84940440315
论文题名: Estimate of China's energy carbon emissions peak and analysis on electric power carbon emissions
作者: Wang Z.-X. ; Zhang J.-J. ; Pan L. ; Yang F. ; Shi L.-N.
刊名: Advances in Climate Change Research
ISSN: 16749278
出版年: 2014
卷: 5, 期: 4 起始页码: 181
结束页码: 188
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Carbon emissions peak
; Electric power development
; Energy consumption
; Growth rate
英文摘要: China's energy carbon emissions are projected to peak in 2030 with approximately 110% of its 2020 level under the following conditions: 1) China's gross primary energy consumption is 5 Gtce in 2020 and 6 Gtce in 2030; 2) coal's share of the energy consumption is 61% in 2020 and 55% in 2030; 3) non-fossil energy's share increases from 15% in 2020 to 20% in 2030; 4) through 2030, China's GDP grows at an average annual rate of 6%; 5) the annual energy consumption elasticity coefficient is 0.30 in average; and 6) the annual growth rate of energy consumption steadily reduces to within 1%. China's electricity generating capacity would be 1,990 GW, with 8,600 TW h of power generation output in 2020. Of that output 66% would be from coal, 5% from gas, and 29% from non-fossil energy. By 2030, electricity generating capacity would reach 3,170 GW with 11,900 TW h of power generation output. Of that output, 56% would be from coal, 6% from gas, and 37% from non-fossil energy. From 2020 to 2030, CO2 emissions from electric power would relatively fall by 0.2 Gt due to lower coal consumption, and relatively fall by nearly 0.3 Gt with the installation of more coal-fired cogeneration units. During 2020-2030, the portion of carbon emissions from electric power in China's energy consumption is projected to increase by 3.4 percentage points. Although the carbon emissions from electric power would keep increasing to 118% of the 2020 level in 2030, the electric power industry would continue to play a decisive role in achieving the goal of increase in non-fossil energy use. This study proposes countermeasures and recommendations to control carbon emissions peak, including energy system optimization, green-coal-fired electricity generation, and demand side management. © 2015 The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/58900
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: China Electricity Council, Beijing, China; North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Wang Z.-X.,Zhang J.-J.,Pan L.,et al. Estimate of China's energy carbon emissions peak and analysis on electric power carbon emissions[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2014-01-01,5(4)