DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2016.10.001
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85008714410
论文题名: Analog years: Connecting climate science and agricultural tradition to better manage landscapes of the future
作者: Wilke A.K. ; Morton L.W.
刊名: Climate Risk Management
ISSN: 22120963
出版年: 2017
卷: 15 起始页码: 32
结束页码: 44
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Affective risk perception
; Decision-making
; Intergenerational narratives
; Temporal reference
英文摘要: Climate scientists rely on observed historical weather and climate data to inform current and future climate model projections. Similarly, agricultural producers use historical events—recent past experiences and historical narratives—to construct local knowledge to assess, quantify, and manage current and future risks. These historical data, events, and experiences become reference points or analogs when compared to a current phenomenon that exhibits similar characteristics specific to past conditions. In this paper we utilize a lens of agricultural traditions and past experiences to posit a temporal reference framework. In-person interviews with 159 Midwest farmers illustrate how the past influences farmers’ perceptions of current and future risks and is used to integrate scientific climate information to inform decision-making. Qualitative analysis provides support for the temporal reference framework, but more empirical testing is needed to further validate the model. © 2016 The Authors Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/58969
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Sociology, Iowa State University, 418 East Hall, Ames, IA, United States; Department of Sociology, Iowa State University, 317C East Hall, Ames, IA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Wilke A.K.,Morton L.W.. Analog years: Connecting climate science and agricultural tradition to better manage landscapes of the future[J]. Climate Risk Management,2017-01-01,15