DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2017.08.002
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85028604658
论文题名: Robustness-based evaluation of hydropower infrastructure design under climate change
作者: Taner M.T. ; Ray P. ; Brown C.
刊名: Climate Risk Management
ISSN: 22120963
出版年: 2017
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Climate variability
; Decision scaling
; Deep uncertainty
; Infrastructure design
; Robustness
英文摘要: The conventional tools of decision-making in water resources infrastructure planning have been developed for problems with well-characterized uncertainties and are ill-suited for problems involving climate nonstationarity. In the past 20. years, a predict-then-act-based approach to the incorporation of climate nonstationarity has been widely adopted in which the outputs of bias-corrected climate model projections are used to evaluate planning options. However, the ambiguous nature of results has often proved unsatisfying to decision makers. This paper presents the use of a bottom-up. , decision scaling framework for the evaluation of water resources infrastructure design alternatives regarding their robustness to climate change and expected value of performance. The analysis begins with an assessment of the vulnerability of the alternative designs under a wide domain of systematically-generated plausible future climates and utilizes downscaled climate projections ex post to inform likelihoods within a risk-based evaluation. The outcomes under different project designs are compared by way of a set of decision criteria, including the performance under the most likely future, expected value of performance across all evaluated futures and robustness. The method is demonstrated for the design of a hydropower system in sub-Saharan Africa and is compared to the results that would be found using a GCM-based, scenario-led analysis. The results indicate that recommendations from the decision scaling analysis can be substantially different from the scenario-led approach, alleviate common shortcomings related to the use of climate projections in water resources planning, and produce recommendations that are more robust to future climate uncertainty. © 2017 The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/58996
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Massachusetts, 12B Marston Hall, 130 Natural Resources Road Amherst, MA 01003-9293, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Massachusetts, 601 Engnrng Res Center Cincinnati, OH 45221-0012, United States
Recommended Citation:
Taner M.T.,Ray P.,Brown C.. Robustness-based evaluation of hydropower infrastructure design under climate change[J]. Climate Risk Management,2017-01-01